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Risk Aversion in Credit Spreads and Equity ETFs 

July 14, 2015

 

Gary Gordon, ETF Trends

Investors have seen a great deal of volatility in U.S. treasuries over the past six months. Early in the year, the combination of recessionary data stateside as well as quantitative easing (QE) measures in Europe helped propel demand for U.S. sovereign debt. Then came the massive unwind, alongside Fed hints at upcoming rate hikes; treasury yields spiked. More recently, the Greece default and the market meltdown in China gave treasuries their groove back.

At present, the 10-year yield (2.25%) sits pretty darn close to where it sat at the start of 2015. If I had to project where that yield would be at the end of the year, I’d tell you that it might move up, down and around, but that it would ultimately be near where it is today. I feel the same way about the greenback. In essence, I anticipate that the U.S. dollar may jump around, but that it will not move substantially higher or lower over the next 6 months. In other words, irrespective of financial system shocks, geopolitical uncertainty or central banker gamesmanship, both the buck and the 10-year may be directionless.

Read More: ETF Trends

 
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